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Investment Strategy
The Vios Strategy

We believe a “cookie cutter” advisory service is not in your best interest. Such an approach tends to over emphasize asset allocation based on past performance. These “one size fits all” solutions to your financial needs are impersonal and do not include a perspective on current market position.

Vios takes market trends into account. For example, in August of 2000 (prior to forming Vios) our research led us to withdraw a significant portion of client assets from the equity market. Our decision was based on the fact that valuations on many stocks were completely unreasonable and had been for at least 2 years. Having recognized that a correction to the gorging of the late 90’s was inevitable, we began to lower our equity weighting when the momentum clearly turned negative that August. As the market unraveled, it was apparent that there would have to be a major correction before it would be prudent to get completely back into the equity market.

At that time the PEs on the S&P 500 were around 30. The normal historical range up until the 1990’s was about 8-18. Therefore we anticipated the PE multiple on the S&P would need to get close to 8 to achieve a full pendulum swing. However, even at the bottom of the market in October of 2002, the PE on the S&P never dropped below 22, let alone 8. Since that point in 2002, earnings have risen dramatically and the S&P 500 again attempted to make new highs in 2007. PE’s have returned to a more normal range in the low teens, meaning that the market ratios may be returning to historical trends.

We remain somewhat concerned however, that the prolonged market upturn of this decade may be susceptible to another major fall when the momentum changes. Only history will tell, but we may have entered that stage in the summer of 2007 with the onset of the credit crunch.

Of course, we don’t pretend to be able to predict when a major turn will come.

Therefore, we believe wise investment decisions can best be made through ongoing intensive research. That includes watching several secondary elements including historical price movements, PE levels, book value and dividend ratios, the historical and implied volatilities, and other such gauges.

Historically, the market trends up over time. In the broadest context, the stock market should reflect the overall economy, as the economy grows, so should the market. Our dynamic approach seeks to take advantage of the economic cycle and the ensuing market trends.